Toronto has become one of baseball’s hottest teams at exactly the right time. Now the Blue Jays have a chance to make another statement against the New York Yankees.
The Toronto Blue Jays enter Saturday’s matchup against the New York Yankees just one game back of an American League Wild Card spot, and suddenly every game at Rogers Centre feels important.
Toronto is also chasing its sixth consecutive series victory.
The surprising part? Despite their recent surge, the Blue Jays enter the Saturday, August 15 matchup as +150 underdogs, with New York sitting around -175 on the moneyline.
So, are the sportsbooks underestimating Toronto?
There are several reasons to believe this game could be much closer than the odds suggest.
Blue Jays vs. Yankees Prediction for August 15
Best Bet: Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 (-120)
The Yankees may have the pitching advantage on paper with Cam Schlittler, but Toronto has handled the young right-hander better than most teams.
That makes the Blue Jays +1.5 run line one of the most interesting angles heading into Saturday afternoon.
Schlittler has produced an impressive 31.4% strikeout rate this season, putting him among baseball’s more difficult pitchers to make consistent contact against.
Toronto, however, has been a different story.
According to the matchup numbers, Blue Jays hitters have produced approximately a .290 expected batting average against Schlittler while striking out only 17% of the time.
That is a significant drop from his normal strikeout numbers.
And Toronto doesn’t necessarily need to win outright for this wager to hit.
The Jays simply need to win the game or lose by one run.
Considering how well Toronto has been playing recently, getting an extra run as a home underdog could provide some valuable protection.
One Blue Jays Hitter Could Be the Key
Keep an eye on Ernie Clement.
Clement has had success against Schlittler, going 5-for-12 in previous matchups while producing an expected batting average around .390.
Even more interesting?
He reportedly hasn’t struck out against Schlittler yet.
For a pitcher who generates strikeouts at such a high rate, that’s impressive.
If Toronto manages to manufacture enough offense to win Saturday’s game, Clement could find himself right in the middle of it.
Can Toronto’s Bullpen Slow Down the Yankees?
Toronto is expected to lean heavily on its bullpen Saturday, which normally wouldn’t inspire a ton of confidence against a Yankees lineup capable of putting runs on the board quickly.
But there is at least one encouraging matchup.
Braydon Fisher has struck out Yankees hitters at a 43% rate across a small 21-at-bat sample.
The sample size certainly isn’t large enough to guarantee anything, but it gives Toronto another reason to believe its bullpen can keep the game manageable.
And that’s really the key.
The Blue Jays don’t necessarily need seven shutout innings.
They simply need their pitching staff to keep New York within striking distance.
Why This Could Become a Low-Scoring Game
Don’t be surprised if Saturday’s matchup turns into a tense, low-scoring afternoon at Rogers Centre.
The Under has hit in each of Toronto’s last five home games against a right-handed starting pitcher, while six of the Jays’ last seven games as a home underdog have also reportedly finished Under.
That makes the Under 7.5 runs particularly intriguing.
Neither team needs to explode offensively for this game to stay competitive.
A 4-3, 3-2 or even 4-2 result would fit the recent trends perfectly.
Blue Jays vs. Yankees Same-Game Parlay
For those looking at a higher-risk same-game parlay, one combination stands out:
- Toronto Blue Jays +1.5
- Ernie Clement 2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs
- Under 7.5 total runs
The logic behind the parlay is fairly straightforward.
Toronto stays competitive.
Clement continues his strong history against Schlittler.
And the game turns into another relatively low-scoring battle.
Of course, same-game parlays carry significantly more risk than individual wagers, so the potential payout comes with a much lower probability of hitting.
Could Kazuma Okamoto Go Deep?
Here’s the longer-shot angle.
Home Run Pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+675)
Kazuma Okamoto is reportedly the only hitter in Toronto’s lineup who has already homered against Schlittler.
He’s also beginning to show signs of life offensively, recording four hits across his previous four games.
The strikeouts remain a concern, but Okamoto’s 43.8% hard-hit rate gives him enough power upside to make the matchup interesting.
At approximately +675, nobody should mistake it for a safe wager.
But if you’re looking for one Blue Jays hitter capable of changing the game with a single swing, Okamoto deserves consideration.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays Odds
Here were the listed odds heading into Saturday’s game:
Moneyline:
New York Yankees -175
Toronto Blue Jays +150
Run Line:
New York Yankees -1.5
Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 (-120)
Total:
Over 7.5 (+100)
Under 7.5 (-100)
Odds can move throughout the day, so bettors should always check the latest numbers before placing a wager.
The Blue Jays Are Suddenly Becoming a Problem
A few weeks can completely change the feeling around a baseball team.
Toronto has gone from simply trying to stay relevant in the playoff race to putting serious pressure on the teams ahead of them.
The Blue Jays are now only one game away from a Wild Card position and have won four straight home games against right-handed starting pitchers.
Another victory against the Yankees wouldn’t just give Toronto another series win.
It would send another message to the rest of the American League:
The Blue Jays aren’t going away.
Final Blue Jays vs. Yankees Prediction
The Yankees deserve to be favored, especially with Schlittler on the mound.
But Toronto’s recent form, its success making contact against Schlittler and the benefit of getting +1.5 runs at home make the Blue Jays difficult to fade right now.
Curiosity Daily Picks
Best Bet: Blue Jays +1.5 (-120)
Same-Game Parlay:
Blue Jays +1.5
Ernie Clement 2+ Hits/Runs/RBIs
Under 7.5
Home Run Pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+675)
Toronto has been one of baseball’s hottest teams.
Now we’ll find out whether that heater can continue against its biggest division rival.
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